That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. Think of how strong our ancestors had to be to allow us to eat a sandwich or sing Happy Birthday. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. Are they gross exaggerations? This button displays the currently selected search type. The fact is, you have a monumentally better chance of becoming anybody you want to be than of even being at all. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the waterin the middle of that life preserver. It was always likely that a living cell would jump out of that primordial soup because the conditions for that to happen must have existed somewhere; and, probably, in several somewheres. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001.. A lovely day to you. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. He looked at the odds of your parents meeting, given how many men and women there are on Earth and how many people of the opposite sex your mother and father would have met in their first 25 years of life. HubPages is a registered trademark of The Arena Platform, Inc. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about 1 in 10. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion or 4 x 10, So, the chance of your particular chain of ancestors having remained unbroken for all that time would be 1 in 2, To account for all 150,000 generations, we raise 400 quadrillion to the 150,000, Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 10, This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. And to get even more woo-woo, I believe we each have a team of ancestors, Spirit Guides and Angels looking after us who love us so much. Same to all of us. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. Youre not just one in a million, youre one in a 102,685,000. A rational approach acknowledges that incredibly low probabilities is not the same as zero probability. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. It makes me want to love better, to hug my baby more, to appreciate the miracles in my life, my family, my friends, my teachers, The animals, plants, precious food, the bugs and butterflies. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. How fast does a laden fly fly? So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. Its the probability of 2 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. Lets say a life preservers hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside, which we will conveniently round to 0.5 square meters. On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. If this writer can grasp the concept then any one of those infinite monkeys can. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Binazir decided to test the Buddhist understanding against the modern scientific understanding. The odds of becoming a millionaire in America are between 6.4% to 22.3% according to data from the Federal Reserve Boards Survey of Consumer Finances. If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 3.409108 square kilometers, or 340,900,000 km2 (131.6 million square miles, for those benighted souls who still cling to user-hostile British measures). Dr. Ali Binazir Specializes In Dating/Being Single Support, Empowering Women, NLP, Phobias/OCD And Wellness And Is Located In San Francisco, CA. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough Course- Work With Me. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). Are You a Miracle? So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a far-fetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists., *Illustration of human profile and numbers via Shutterstock, You're one in 400 trillion, or pretty much a miracle. Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazir's Article on Probability of Being Born Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. That means that in every step of your lineage, the exact the right sperm had to fertilize the exact right egg such that you would ultimately be created. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their parents, and so on back to the beginning of human time. I have one baby so far, but Im still fertile, according to science. Now before you start telling your parents that they could have traded any of your younger siblings for the lottery winnings, your siblings are miracles too! Even if they couldn't read them yet. Gamblers always play the odds; their lives revolve around probabilities, and that has led many into dark places. If you need to flag this entry as abusive. By that definition, I've just proven that you are a miracle. I hope you use your chance well. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? Yes, it is clear the 'opportunity' of born is complete chance and luck. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. Why? So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? The odds of you being born as you are about 1 in 400 trillion, or more. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. These links dont impose any extra cost on you, and they help support the free content I provide here. decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. For perspective on the size of those numbers, there are only 10x 80 elementary particles in the observable universe.). First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Dr Ali Binazir, Contributor Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing Jun 16, 2011, 03:58 PM EDT | Updated Aug 16, 2011 This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. But lets think about this some more. But, the odds of every bridge deal are exactly the same. However, your existence presupposes another supremely unlikely chain of events. Worldwide, there are 2,043 billionaires among 7.4 billion people. : A definitive guide for smart women, How to Get Guys: The 6.5 Dating Phases of Men. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. To that, we could add the probability that the one sperm and the one egg met one another because she wasnt in the mood, but lets not split hairs here. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. Get ready to have your socks blown off, ya beautiful miracle, you. The analogy given by Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of YOU being born is here: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Which ones bigger? The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Still, the racial wealth gap continues: Only 11 of them are black. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Dr. Binazir puts it this way: "It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). The learned professor was actually pulling everyones legs, but Littlewoods Law has been conscripted as proof of a number of strange theories. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. If the first shot fall into the black hole, it remains only the red, and not green or blue. Borels Law is about the probability of events occurring. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. Part of HuffPost Wellness. Based on the data from the CDC . It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 102,685,000. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. So he gave us an analogy that helps: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. On the Probability of Your Being Born.. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. on May 07, 2020: Rupert, in spite of too many odds in a probability, bottom line is that it is just 2 numbers of the roulette, black and red. Fortunes were lost as players bet huge amounts on red in the erroneous belief that the law of probabilities dictated the ball would not drop on black again. The number of atoms making up the earth is about 1050. This book will rapidly bring you up to speed on epidemiology and pandemic management. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Harvard alumnus and creativity consultant Dr. Ali Binazir tried to calculate the mind-boggling odds of one being born into existence on earth, and came up with interesting results. -- from "Love at First Sight", Wislawa Szymborska, The End and The Beginning, 1993. Regardless of your skin color, country of origin, body size, religion, gender, or view point, WE ALREADY MADE IT HERE. This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! Or is it possible that they are underestimates of the true number? This is similar to the probability of any one star turning super-nova. Step 2. To get the final answer, technically we need to multiply that by the 1045,000 , 2000 and 20,000 up there, but those numbers are so shrimpy in comparison that it almost doesnt matter. But, despite your being an extremely wonderful person, such a statement is wildly inaccurate. An unimaginably long time. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. You exist, that is the only probable outcome, so the probability of you being you is 1. The great mystery of our existence stretches back in time into the very heart and mind of God who has always known and loved us, has prepared for us and made a way for us. Id gladly take those odds over trying to become a millionaire in any other country. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. Thats going to take a LONG time. So, who better to explain probability theory than someone who is a complete duffer at mathematics? A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? Or, the total number of seconds that have elapsed since the Big Bang is 10x 16 th power. Dr. Ali Binazir took it further. So what's the probability of your being born? The odds against 26 blacks in a row are about 66 million to one against; however, previous results have absolutely no effect on subsequent ones. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. The only know outcome is that you were born to your particular parents. But lets make it longer. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. I was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Just starting from your parents, the chance of them meeting and creating you is astronomically slim. xx, Lets be social! Thats just the observable Universe; we havent the faintest idea what is beyond what we can detect with our instruments. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? Then the probability of Mr. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. Onward to freedom! Is that an African fly or a European one? What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 10 2,685,000. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. Popes point: that we are not accidents, that God chose to create you and [me]. No need for caution about drawing any conclusion other that the one he quite explicitly drew. So what's the probability of your being born? That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. I recently got to wondering: What are the chances that my son was born? Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. I would call that a personal relationship with God. dr ali binazir odds of being bornmartin et julien bouchet biathlon. Here it should be realize it is a quest work. Here's Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: "It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. To further awaken to the miracle that is you, get The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible, now available in book, ebook, Kindle, audiobook, and Sinai indestructible stone tablet. Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. Step 1. Now lets say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. They each roll the dice and they all come up with. msk zilina slovan bratislava; battle of the brothers winner Thats a pretty good trip. What are the odds of that? The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Think of yourself as dead. To further awaken to the miracle that is you, get The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible, now available in book, ebook, Kindle, audiobook, and Sinai indestructible stone tablet. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. He calculated that an average human could expect to experience such an occurrence once every 35 days. Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. June 24, 2022 . By all accounts, you shouldnt even be here. You have lived your life. This content is accurate and true to the best of the authors knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional. He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. Gather your loved ones around and give props to your incredibly resilient and badass survivor ancestors, while you explode your gender revel confetti poppers. Me neither. "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. Xahej (ZAH-edge) "Xi" Bajipura she/her/Ms. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers to this website may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause dont count. Dr. Ali Binazir took it further. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. So, round-trip time works out to be about 14 yearsfor the fly to go to the moon and back. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." The right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents; otherwise theyd be different people and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Fortunately, just such a person is poised at the keyboard right now, so lets get started. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. Step 2. What it took to get us all here, in this time, together, seems too precious to let pass us by without open hearts. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are., Buddhists have talked of the preciousness of this incarnation. Similarly, Dr. Ali Binazir, in his article for The Huffington Post, has a clever calculation that resulted in his estimate that the probability of being born is 1 in 10 2,685,000 . In other words, as this infographic figures it, you are totally improbable. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. Thats a pretty straightforward calculation. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. He looked at the amount of water in the oceans, compared to the size of a life-preserver. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazir's article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Dr Ali Binazir is the author of the 'The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible', the highest-rated dating book on Amazon.co.